The 180s market is what has delivered me the most success. In my opinion it’s the easiest market of any sport you’ll find.
The reason I make that bold statement is due to the lack of variables. Darts is unique in that nothing changes. The height of the board, the distance players throw from, the weather conditions, it’s always the same in every match.
Unlike in others sports where a player can stifle their opponent with good play of their own, that’s not the case in darts.
You also won’t lose a 180s bet due to a poor referee decision. The only thing that can affect your bet is the players themselves.
Average 180s Per Leg
The key stat being how many 180s a player hits per leg. At the time of posting this article, Michael Van Gerwen is averaging 0.2237 180s per leg during the 2021 season. That ranks him 55th on the PDC Tour.
Ross Smith averages 0.3218 180s per leg, 6th on the PDC Tour. So were these two players to meet, Ross Smith would be a strong favourite in the 180s market.
I use these simple stats to price up to 180 markets myself. Pricing markets comes down to an opinion and experience.
My odds will vary depending on the number of legs in the match. In a race to 6 legs, there is more chance of an upset and the probability of a draw increases. Over 19 legs both possibilities diminish and therefore Smith would be a shorter price favourite.
Once I have priced up the 180 markets I simply compare my price with that of the bookmakers. If they are different, that’s when I tip.
Factors Affecting 180s
Like any sport, form is a huge factor. Those stats I have provided come from an entire season, 12 months of matches. Players form on the 180s will vary.
It’s important to keep an eye on recent form. This can be affected by a number of factors. Players may simply increase the intensity of their practice sessions heading into a big event like the World Championship. This could see their 180 stats improve.
Darts players sometimes change their equipment. Peter Wright has been a prime example of this. His 180 hitting has fluctuated massively at times depending on which darts he plays with. In recent times he appears more settled with his equipment choices.
Devon Peterson at times during 2020 was hitting 180s like I’ve never seen before. Over 0.40 per leg. His scoring power came from nowhere and caught the bookmakers out. I was able to capatalise on numerous occasions.
However, for whatever reason, that scoring power deserted Peterson in 2021 and he’s averaging just 0.2265. I don’t know the explanation but it’s a huge difference and just highlights the importance of current form.
Total 180s & Player 180s
Other markets you can bet on are Total 180s and Player 180s. If you know how many 180s a player is likely to hit per leg, you simple multiply that by the number of legs expected.
Obviously I can only estimate at how many legs there will be, but it does give us an exact figure to price up the market and compare with the bookmaker.
For example if I wanted to predict the number of 180s Michael Van Gerwen would hit, I would look at the Total Legs line set by the bookmakers. If it was 16.5 I would simply multiple that by 0.2265 (Van Gerwen’s average 180s per leg).
That gives me 3.737. That’s the average number of 180s I would expect Van Gerwen to hit in that match. From here I can predict what the line and odds will be.
It would be somewhere in the region of 1.8 for Over 3.5 Van Gerwen 180s and 2.2 for Under 3.5 180s. All I would do next is compare those odds with that of the bookmakers. If they are different, that’s when I bet.
It takes me back to yesterday’s article about understanding value in betting.
To bet on Total 180s, you would simply calculate the expected 180s of the second player and combine the two.