This blog post is primarily aimed at any gamblers who want to make a long term profit from your betting. If you gamble purely for enjoyment (which is fine) then feel free to spend the next five minutes of your life doing something more productive to you (please not looking for your next accumulator).
To make that elusive long term profit betting online you need one of two things. Value or luck! Please don’t rely on the latter.
Trying to explain the concept of value betting to certain tipsters.
It’s really not that difficult to grasp pic.twitter.com/ewhwbT9yhj
— BettingKingdom (@BettingKingdom) January 5, 2019
The Coin Toss
The simplest way to explain value betting is with a simple coin toss. The two outcomes, heads and tails, have a 50% chance of landing. If you toss the coin 100 times, probability suggests it will land on heads 50 times and tails 50 times.
Now obviously there is no guarantee of that, but just keep that in mind, it’s important.
The odds therefore on Heads would be Evens (2.0). If you kept betting £10 on Heads at Evens, after 100 coin tosses you’d end up exactly where you started.
Bookmakers gain their edge by adding a margin to the odds. So they would price Heads at 10/11 (1.91). So after 100 coin tosses, if 50 landed on Heads, you have now lost money.
So for us, as punters to win, we need the bookmakers to offer us odds of over 2.0 on Heads. Then over the course of 100 coin tosses, assuming probability didn’t screw us over, we’d be the ones in profit.
So how do we find value and make a profit?
1. Follow Tipsters
The easiest approach we can take as punters is to simply follow profitable tipsters. Let them do the hard work and leave it to them to decide what bets offer value. If the tipster is making a long term profit, then their approach to finding value for their tips is working.
2. Take advantage of Free Bets and Sign Up Bonuses
Bookmakers will entice new customers with free bets and ongoing promotions to keep punters happy. The reason they are willing to do this is most mug punters will use their £5 free bet on a 100/1 accumulator that has a probability of 1000/1. Bookmakers love mug punters.
You could take a different approach. Instead use your free bet on a more sensible wager. If you were to back an Even money shot with your £5 free bet, given you are not risking any of your own money, suddenly you have value in the odds.
That is why taking advantage of the best bookmaker free bet offers and sign up bonuses can help bolster your betting balance.
3. Bet on Price Boosts
Bookmakers and punters love a Price Boost. For the big events and football matches, bookies will hand pick a few selections and boost the odds.
Be wary, bookmakers are clever, sometimes their boosted price is actually available at bigger odds elsewhere. Also there is a reason why bookmakers choose to boost certain markets.
I recommend certain Price Boosts from time to time that I believe offer real value and are not just gimmicks. Keep an eye out for them on the homepage and Twitter.
4. Compare Odds
Sometimes it’s as easy as comparing the odds on certain markets. Another feature here at Tips Checker is Value Bets. This is where one bookmaker offers much bigger odds on a market than their rivals.
It’s surprising that bookmakers make mistakes like these, but it’s certainly a very easy way to find value for your bets. The higher the odds, the less chance there is value. So just because one bookmaker is 500/1 and the rest are 400/1 doesn’t guarantee you value. The true probability of that outcome could be much higher.
So next time you are placing a bet, just pause for a minute and ask yourself the question, are these odds greater than the probability of the outcome? Often there is no easy answer, but as you get more skilled your instinct will improve and this will help you become a more successful punter.
Thanks for reading! Good Luck and please always gamble responsibly.
I would like to take this opportunity to admit that not all the tips posted on this site will be value bets, especially the Bet Builders. This site is designed to offer content for both shrewd punters who seek a long term profit and those that gamble for fun.